Total: 22
Socio-economic maps contain important information regarding the population of a country. Computing these maps is critical given that policy makers often times make important decisions based upon such information. However, the compilation of socio-economic maps requires extensive resources and becomes highly expensive. On the other hand, the ubiquitous presence of cell phones, is generating large amounts of spatiotemporal data that can reveal human behavioral traits related to specific socio-economic characteristics. Traditional inference approaches have taken advantage of these datasets to infer regional socio-economic characteristics. In this paper, we propose a novel approach whereby topic models are used to infer socio-economic levels from large-scale spatio-temporal data. Instead of using a pre-determined set of features, we use latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to extract latent recurring patterns of co-occurring behaviors across regions, which are then used in the prediction of socio-economic levels. We show that our approach improves state of the art prediction results by 9%.
Transportation and mobility are central to sustainable urban development, where multiagent-based route guidance is widely applied. Traditional multiagent-based route guidance always seeks LET (least expected travel time) paths. However, drivers usually have specific expectations, i.e., tight or loose deadlines, which may not be all met by LET paths. We thus adopt and extend the probability tail model that aims to maximize the probability of reaching destinations before deadlines. Specifically, we propose a decentralized multiagent approach, where infrastructure agents locally collect intentions of concerned vehicle agents and formulate route guidance as a route assignment problem, to guarantee their arrival on time. Experimental results on real road networks justify its ability to increase the chance of arrival on time.
The Hierarchical Graph-Coupled Hidden Markov Model (hGCHMM) is a useful tool for tracking and predicting the spread of contagious diseases, such as influenza, by leveraging social contact data collected from individual wearable devices. However, the existing inference algorithms depend on the assumption that the infection rates are small in probability, typically close to 0. The purpose of this paper is to build a unified learning framework for latent infection state estimation for the hGCHMM, regardless of the infection rate and transition function. We derive our algorithm based on a dynamic auto-encoding variational inference scheme, thus potentially generalizing the hGCHMM to models other than those that work on highly contagious diseases. We experimentally compare our approach with previous Gibbs EM algorithms and standard variational method mean-field inference, on both semi-synthetic data and app collected epidemiological and social records.
Sensor selection has become an active topic aimed at energy saving, information overload prevention, and communication cost planning in sensor networks. In many real applications, often the sensors' observation regions have overlaps and thus the sensor network is inherently redundant. Therefore it is important to select proper sensors to avoid data redundancy. This paper focuses on how to incrementally select a subset of sensors in a streaming scenario to minimize information redundancy, and meanwhile meet the power consumption constraint. We propose to perform sensor selection in a multi-variate interpolation framework, such that the data sampled by the selected sensors can well predict those of the inactive sensors. Importantly, we incorporate sensors' spatial information as two regularizers, which leads to significantly better prediction performance. We also define a statistical variable to store sufficient information for incremental learning, and introduce a forgetting factor to track sensor streams' evolvement. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Moreover, our method is over 10 times faster than the state-of-the-art sensor selection algorithm.
This paper considers prescriptive evacuation planning for a region threatened by a natural disaster such a flood, a wildfire, or a hurricane. It proposes a Benders decomposition that generalizes the two-stage approach proposed in earlier work for convergent evacuation plans. Experimental results show that Benders decomposition provides significant improvements in solution quality in reasonable time: It finds provably optimal solutions to scenarios considered in prior work, closing these instances, and increases the number of evacuees by 10 to 15% on average on more complex flood scenarios.
With rapid population growth and urbanization, emergency services in various cities around the world worry that the current transportation infrastructure is no longer adequate for large-scale evacuations. This paper considers how to mitigate this issue through infrastructure upgrades, such as the additions of lanes to road segments and the raising of bridges and roads. The paper proposes a MIP model for deciding the most effective infrastructure upgrades as well as a Benders decomposition approach where the master problem jointly plans the upgrades and evacuation routes and the subproblem schedules the evacuation itself. Experimental results demonstrate the practicability of the approach on a real case study, filling a significant need for emergencies services.
Conservation is an ethic of sustainable use of natural resources which focuses on the preservation of biodiversity, i.e., the degree of variation of life. Conservation planning seeks to reach this goal by means of deliberate actions, aimed at the protection (or restoration) of biodiversity features. In this paper we present an intelligent system to assist conservation managers in planning habitat restoration actions, with focus on the activities to be carried out in the islands of the Great Barrier Reef (QLD) and the Pilbara (WA) regions of Australia. In particular, we propose a constrained optimisation formulation of the habitat restoration planning (HRP) problem, capturing aspects such as population dynamics and uncertainty. We show that the HRP is NP-hard, and develop a constraint programming (CP) model and a large neighbourhood search (LNS) procedure to generate activity plans under budgeting constraints.
Understanding and predicting how influenza propagates is vital to reduce its impact. In this paper we develop a nonparametric model based on Gaussian process (GP) regression to capture the complex spatial and temporal dependencies present in the data. A stochastic variational inference approach was adopted to address scalability. Rather than modeling the problem as a time-series as in many studies, we capture the space-time dependencies by combining different kernels. A kernel averaging technique which converts spatially-diffused point processes to an area process is proposed to model geographical distribution. Additionally, to accurately model the variable behavior of the time-series, the GP kernel is further modified to account for non-stationarity and seasonality. Experimental results on two datasets of state-wide US weekly flu-counts consisting of 19,698 and 89,474 data points, ranging over several years, illustrate the robustness of the model as a tool for further epidemiological investigations.
In electricity markets, the choice of the right pricing regime is crucial for the utilities because the price they charge to their consumers, in anticipation of their demand in real-time, is a key determinant of their profits and ultimately their survival in competitive energy markets. Among the existing pricing regimes, in this paper, we consider ex-ante dynamic pricing schemes as (i) they help to address the peak demand problem (a crucial problem in smart grids), and (ii) they are transparent and fair to consumers as the cost of electricity can be calculated before the actual consumption. In particular, we propose an axiomatic framework that establishes the conceptual underpinnings of the class of ex-ante dynamic pricing schemes. We first propose five key axioms that reflect the criteria that are vital for energy utilities and their relationship with consumers. We then prove an impossibility theorem to show that there is no pricing regime that satisfies all the five axioms simultaneously. We also study multiple cost functions arising from various pricing regimes to examine the subset of axioms that they satisfy. We believe that our proposed framework in this paper is first of its kind to evaluate the class of ex-ante dynamic pricing schemes in a manner that can be operationalised by energy utilities.
With renewable energy becoming more common, energy prices fluctuate more depending on environmental factors such as the weather. Consuming energy without taking volatile prices into consideration can not only become expensive, but may also increase the peak load, which requires energy providers to generate additional energy using less environment-friendly methods. In the Netherlands, pumping stations that maintain the water levels of polder canals are large energy consumers, but the controller software currently used in the industry does not take real-time energy availability into account. We investigate if existing AI planning techniques have the potential to improve upon the current solutions. In particular, we propose a light weight but realistic simulator and investigate if an online planning method (UCT) can utilise this simulator to improve the cost-efficiency of pumping station control policies. An empirical comparison with the current control algorithms indicates that substantial cost, and thus peak load, reduction can be attained.
Understanding speed and travel-time dynamics in response to various city related events is an important and challenging problem. Sensor data (numerical) containing average speed of vehicles passing through a road link can be interpreted in terms of traffic related incident reports from city authorities and social media data (textual), providing a complementary understanding of traffic dynamics. State-of-the-art research is focused on either analyzing sensor observations or citizen observations; we seek to exploit both in a synergistic manner. We demonstrate the role of domain knowledge in capturing the non-linearity of speed and travel-time dynamics by segmenting speed and travel-time observations into simpler components amenable to description using linear models such as Linear Dynamical System (LDS). Specifically, we propose Restricted Switching Linear Dynamical System (RSLDS) to model normal speed and travel time dynamics and thereby characterize anomalous dynamics. We utilize the city traffic events extracted from text to explain anomalous dynamics. We present a large scale evaluation of the proposed approach on a real-world traffic and twitter dataset collected over a year with promising results.
Participatory sensing is a promising new low-cost approach for collecting environmental data. However, current large-scale environmental participatory sensing campaigns typically do not coordinate the measurements of participants, which can lead to gaps or redundancy in the collected data. While some work has considered this problem, it has made several unrealistic assumptions. In particular, it assumes that complete and accurate knowledge about the participants future movements is available and it does not consider constraints on the number of measurements a user is willing to take. To address these shortcomings, we develop a computationally-efficient coordination algorithm (Best-match) to suggest to users where and when to take measurements. Our algorithm exploits human mobility patterns, but explicitly considers the inherent uncertainty of these patterns. We empirically evaluate our algorithm on a real-world human mobility and air quality dataset and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art greedy and pull-based proximity algorithms in dynamic environments.
Green security — protection of forests, fish and wildlife — is a critical problem in environmental sustainability. We focus on the problem of optimizing the defense of forests againstillegal logging, where often we are faced with the challenge of teaming up many different groups, from national police to forest guards to NGOs, each with differing capabilities and costs. This paper introduces a new, yet fundamental problem: SimultaneousOptimization of Resource Teams and Tactics (SORT). SORT contrasts with most previous game-theoretic research for green security — in particular based onsecurity games — that has solely focused on optimizing patrolling tactics, without consideration of team formation or coordination. We develop new models and scalable algorithms to apply SORT towards illegal logging in large forest areas. We evaluate our methods on a variety of synthetic examples, as well as a real-world case study using data from our on-going collaboration in Madagascar.
Statistical modeling of local precipitation involves understanding local, regional and global factors informative of precipitation variability in a region. Modern machine learning methods for feature selection can potentially be explored for identifying statistically significant features from pool of potential predictors of precipitation. In this work, we consider sparse regression, which simultaneously performs feature selection and regression, followed by random permutation tests for selecting dominant factors. We consider average winter precipitation over Great Lakes Region in order to identify its dominant influencing factors.Experiments show that global climate indices, computed at different temporal lags, offer predictive information for winter precipitation. Further, among the dominant factors identified using randomized permutation tests, multiple climate indices indicate the influence of geopotential height patterns on winter precipitation.Using composite analysis, we illustrate that certain patterns are indeed typical in high and low precipitation years, and offer plausible scientific reasons for variations in precipitation.Thus, feature selection methods can be useful in identifying influential climate processes and variables, and thereby provide useful hypotheses over physical mechanisms affecting local precipitation.
The lack of reliable data in developing countries is a major obstacle to sustainable development, food security, and disaster relief. Poverty data, for example, is typically scarce, sparse in coverage, and labor-intensive to obtain. Remote sensing data such as high-resolution satellite imagery, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly available and inexpensive. Unfortunately, such data is highly unstructured and currently no techniques exist to automatically extract useful insights to inform policy decisions and help direct humanitarian efforts. We propose a novel machine learning approach to extract large-scale socioeconomic indicators from high-resolution satellite imagery. The main challenge is that training data is very scarce, making it difficult to apply modern techniques such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). We therefore propose a transfer learning approach where nighttime light intensities are used as a data-rich proxy. We train a fully convolutional CNN model to predict nighttime lights from daytime imagery, simultaneously learning features that are useful for poverty prediction. The model learns filters identifying different terrains and man-made structures, including roads, buildings, and farmlands, without any supervision beyond nighttime lights. We demonstrate that these learned features are highly informative for poverty mapping, even approaching the predictive performance of survey data collected in the field.
We study the problem of analyzing a large volume ofbioacoustic data collected in-situ with the goal of assessingthe biodiversity of bird species at the data collectionsite. We are interested in the class discoveryproblem for this setting. Specifically, given a large collectionof audio recordings containing bird and othersounds, we aim to automatically select a fixed size subsetof the recordings for human expert labeling suchthat the maximum number of species/classes is discovered.We employ a multi-instance multi-label representationto address multiple simultaneously vocalizingbirds with sounds that overlap in time, and proposenew algorithms for species/class discovery using thisrepresentation. In a comparative study, we show that theproposed methods discover more species/classes thancurrent state-of-the-art in a real world datasetof 92,095 ten-second recordings collected in field conditions.
We address the problem of robust decision making for stochastic network design. Our work is motivated by spatial conservation planning where the goal is to take management decisions within a fixed budget to maximize the expected spread of a population of species over a network of land parcels. Most previous work for this problem assumes that accurate estimates of different network parameters (edge activation probabilities, habitat suitability scores) are available, which is an unrealistic assumption. To address this shortcoming, we assume that network parameters are only partially known, specified via interval bounds. We then develop a decision making approach that computes the solution with minimax regret. We provide new theoretical results regarding the structure of the minmax regret solution which help develop a computationally efficient approach. Empirically, we show that previous approaches that work on point estimates of network parameters result in high regret on several standard benchmarks, while our approach provides significantly more robust solutions.
We present a new perspective on the classical shortest path routing (SPR) problem in graphs. We show that the SPR problem can be recast to that of probabilistic inference in a mixture of simple Bayesian networks. Maximizing the likelihood in this mixture becomes equivalent to solving the SPR problem. We develop the well known Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the SPR problem that maximizes the likelihood, and show that it does not get stuck in a locally optimal solution. Using the same probabilistic framework, we then address an NP-Hard network design problem where the goal is to repair a network of roads post some disaster within a fixed budget such that the connectivity between a set of nodes is optimized. We show that our likelihood maximization approach using the EM algorithm scales well for this problem taking the form of message-passing among nodes of the graph, and provides significantly better quality solutions than a standard mixed-integer programming solver.
A confluence of technical, economic and political forces are revolutionizing the energy sector. Policy-makers, who decide on incentives and penalties for possible courses of actions, play a critical role in determining which outcomes arise. However, designing appropriate energy policies is a complex and challenging task. Our vision is to provide tools and methodologies for policy makers so that they can leverage the power of big data to make evidence-based decisions. In this paper we present an approach we call big-data mechanism design which combines a mechanism design framework with stakeholder surveys and data to allow policy-makers to gauge the costs and benefits of potential policy decisions.We illustrate the effectiveness of this approach in a concrete application domain: the peaksaver PLUS program in Ontario, Canada.
We propose a decision making framework to optimize the resilience of road networks to natural disasters such as floods. Our model generalizes an existing one for this problem by allowing roads with a broad class of stochastic delay models. We then present a fast algorithm based on the sample average approximation (SAA) method and network design techniques to solve this problem approximately. On a small existing benchmark, our algorithm produces near-optimal solutions and the SAA method converges quickly with a small number of samples. We then apply our algorithm to a large real-world problem to optimize the resilience of a road network to failures of stream crossing structures to minimize travel times of emergency medical service vehicles. On medium-sized networks, our algorithm obtains solutions of comparable quality to a greedy baseline method but is 30–60 times faster. Our algorithm is the only existing algorithm that can scale to the full network, which has many thousands of edges.
With the advent of e-commerce, logistics providers are faced with the challenge of handling fluctuating and sparsely distributed demand, which raises their operational costs significantly. As a result, horizontal cooperation are gaining momentum around the world. One of the major impediments, however, is the lack of stable and fair profit sharing mechanism. In this paper, we address this problem using the framework of computational cooperative games. We first present cooperative vehicle routing game as a model for collaborative logistics operations. Using the axioms of Shapley value as the conditions for fairness, we show that a stable, fair and budget balanced allocation does not exist in many instances of the game. By relaxing budget balance, we then propose an allocation scheme based on the normalized Shapley value. We show that this scheme maintains stability and fairness while requiring minimum subsidy. Finally, using numerical experiments we demonstrate the feasibility of the scheme under various settings.
Accurate weather forecasts enhance sustainability by facilitating decision making across a broad range of endeavors including public safety, transportation, energy generation and management, retail logistics, emergency preparedness, and many others. This paper presents a method for combining multiple scalar forecasts to obtain deterministic predictions that are generally more accurate than any of the constituents. Exponentially-weighted forecast bias estimates and error covariance matrices are formed at observation sites, aggregated spatially and temporally, and used to formulate a constrained, regularized least squares regression problem that may be solved using quadratic programming. The model is re-trained when new observations arrive, updating the forecast bias estimates and consensus combination weights to adapt to weather regime and input forecast model changes. The algorithm is illustrated for 0-72 hour temperature forecasts at over 1200 sites in the contiguous U.S. based on a 22-member forecast ensemble, and its performance over multiple seasons is compared to a state-of-the-art ensemble-based forecasting system. In addition to weather forecasts, this approach to consensus may be useful for ensemble predictions of climate, wind energy, solar power, energy demand, and numerous other quantities.